Oil, bonds, and the IMF all moved in the same direction this week — and none of them moved in your favour. Here's the state of play.

Today on The Open Bell:

The US now has three aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf for the first time since 2012, and oil just crossed $102 a barrel, which means this weekend's petrol price is already being written by people in military planning rooms, not market trading floors.

The 10-year Treasury yield, the benchmark that prices US government debt and your mortgage in the same breath, touched 5.30% this week, a level the country hasn't seen since 2002, and the bond market just posted its worst quarter in decades without most people noticing.

The IMF cut its global growth forecast to 3.0% for 2026 and titled the report "Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology," which sounds like a thriller but is actually just a polite way of saying the world is splitting into countries getting richer off oil and countries getting poorer buying it.

If today's episode helped you connect the dots, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps the next person find the show.

New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:
00:00 Introduction
00:15 Brent Surges Past $102 as US Deploys Third Carrier to Middle
02:49 US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.30% — Highest Level Since 2
05:03 IMF Cuts 2026 Global Growth to 3.0% as War Weighs on Energy 
06:48 Closing thoughts

The US now has three aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf for the first time since 2012, and oil just crossed $102 a barrel, which means this weekend's petrol price is already being written by people in military planning rooms, not market trading floors.

The Open Bell — Ep. 074 — 2 Oct 2026

The Persian Gulf now has three US aircraft carriers in it, and the price of oil just crossed $102 a barrel for the first time in months. That tends to get people's attention.

🛢️ Brent just crossed $102. Three carriers in the Gulf.

August inflation came in well below forecast — and bond markets shrugged. Here's what the gap between the data and the 10-year yield means for your borrowing costs right now.

Today on The Open Bell:

The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, PCE, came in cooler than Wall Street expected for August, and the odds of another rate hike this month just collapsed, but mortgage rates are still sitting at 7.58% so the relief isn't exactly landing on anyone's doorstep yet.

Micron Technology just posted the kind of quarter that makes you reconsider everything you thought you knew about a chip company's ceiling: $54 billion in a single quarter, nearly four times where it was a year ago, because AI needs memory and Micron is essentially the only American company equipped to supply it at scale.

Japan's 10-year government bond yield, basically the price the Japanese government pays to borrow for a decade, just hit 3.10%, its highest level in roughly thirty years, and when the world's biggest creditor starts offering real returns at home, global money moves toward it and away from everywhere else.

If today's episode saved you a trip down a financial rabbit hole, a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify helps the next listener find us.

New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:
00:00 Introduction
00:10 US PCE Inflation Cools to 3.4%, Slashing Fed Hike Odds for O
03:05 Micron Posts Record $54.2bn Quarter, Guided by AI Memory Sur
05:38 Japan 10-Year Yield Rises to 3.10%, Highest in Decades on Ha
07:38 Closing thoughts

The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, PCE, came in cooler than Wall Street expected for August, and the odds of another rate hike this month just collapsed, but mortgage rates are still sitting at 7.58% so the relief isn't exactly landing on anyone's doorstep yet.

The Open Bell — Ep. 073 — 1 Oct 2026

The Fed's favourite inflation gauge finally cooperated. The bond market didn't care.

Core PCE just blinked. Rates didn't.

Bonds are flashing recession, consumers are the gloomiest since 2014, and the White House just cracked open emergency oil reserves. A lot to unpack before the close.

Today on The Open Bell:

The 30-year Treasury yield, which is what the US government pays to borrow money for three decades and the invisible hand behind your mortgage rate, just hit 5.62 percent, a level this country hasn't seen since 2002, and the people setting prices on those bonds are saying something loud and clear about where they think inflation is actually headed.

The Trump administration just cracked open 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the country's emergency oil stockpile, to try to hold pump prices down while the US-Iran standoff keeps rattling Middle East supply routes, but two days' worth of American consumption only buys so much time, and the reserve isn't bottomless.

Consumer confidence just collapsed to its lowest reading since 2014, with the forward-looking piece of the index falling to a level economists associate with outright recession expectations, and the fact that markets shrugged tells you something uncomfortable about whose anxiety actually moves prices.

If this helped you make sense of a genuinely strange day in the economy, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps the next listener find the show.

New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:
00:00 Introduction
00:12 US 30-yr Treasury yield hits 24-yr high as inflation fears g
03:00 Trump taps SPR for 40 mn barrels; Brent crude tumbles toward
05:10 Closing thoughts

The 30-year Treasury yield, which is what the US government pays to borrow money for three decades and the invisible hand behind your mortgage rate, just hit 5.62 percent, a level this country hasn't seen since 2002, and the people setting prices on those bonds are saying something loud and clear about where they think inflation is actually headed.

The Open Bell — Ep. 072 — 30 Sept 2026

The bond market just sent a message, and it wasn't subtle.

📉 30-yr Treasury yield hits a 24-year high today

Brent hit $108.83 overnight, the RBA just raised rates blaming the war, and Japan is one bad yen move away from intervention. It's a connected crisis now.

Today on The Open Bell:

Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel that carries a fifth of the world's oil, and Brent crude responded by surging past $107 a barrel, which means the world just chose the more expensive option.

Australia's central bank raised borrowing costs to their highest point since 2011, and the reason printed right there in the official statement is a war in the Middle East that has nothing to do with Australia's own economy.

Japan is warning currency traders to stop selling the yen, loudly and with apparent U.S. backing, but U.S. interest rates are still four times higher than Japan's, so traders are being paid handsomely to keep doing exactly what Tokyo is asking them to stop.

If today's episode helped you follow a fast-moving story, a five-star rating takes ten seconds and helps the next listener find the show.

New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:
00:00 Introduction
00:09 Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz plan; Brent surges past $107
03:11 RBA raises cash rate to 4.60%, highest since 2011, citing oi
05:14 Japan warns markets on yen at 157; joint U.S.-Japan action f
07:03 Closing thoughts

Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel that carries a fifth of the world's oil, and Brent crude responded by surging past $107 a barrel, which means the world just chose the more expensive option.

The Open Bell — Ep. 071 — 29 Sept 2026

Trump said no to Iran's seven-day reopening proposal overnight, and the ripple reached Australian mortgage holders by Tuesday morning.

🛢️ Trump just rejected the Hormuz deal. $107 oil.

The Hormuz off-ramp is gone, bonds are selling off globally, and an Australian gold miner just made its shareholders 9% richer before lunch.

Today on The Open Bell:

Trump turned down Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil, and the market's response was instant: if those tankers stay disrupted, inflation isn't going anywhere.

That rejection sent bond yields, the interest rate the government pays to borrow your money, climbing to 5.20% on the 10-year US Treasury, the highest since before the 2008 financial crisis, which means mortgages, car loans, and business borrowing all just got a little more expensive before breakfast.

Meanwhile, in a story that tells you exactly where investors are parking money right now, South Africa's Gold Fields quietly tried to buy Australia's biggest gold miner for AU$38.7 billion and got turned down flat, but Northern Star's shareholders still walked away 9% richer just because the offer became public.

If today's episode helped you cut through the noise, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps the next listener find the show.

New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:
00:00 Introduction
00:20 Trump Rejects Iran Hormuz Deal, Sending Oil and Yields Surgi
03:08 Global Bond Selloff Deepens: US 10-Year Yield Hits 5.20%
05:53 Gold Fields' AU$38.7bn Bid for Northern Star Rejected, Share
08:09 Closing thoughts

Trump turned down Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil, and the market's response was instant: if those tankers stay disrupted, inflation isn't going anywhere.

Merch is on the way.

Get it in your inbox before it's in the shop.