The Fed's minutes are out. Mortgage rates may follow.
The Fed's internal debate is no longer internal — the September minutes just dropped, and markets are already repricing what comes next.
Listen to the same-day episode — Ep. 077
The Fed's minutes are out. Mortgage rates may follow.
The Fed's internal debate is no longer internal — the September minutes just dropped, and markets are already repricing what comes next.
⏱️ ~4 min read
📊 Today's Numbers
Fed Funds Rate ▲ 3.75–4.00%: first hike since 2023
France-Germany Spread ▲ 150bp: widest since Nov 2011
RBI Repo Rate ▲ 5.50%: India reverses 2025 easing cycle
Brent Crude ▼ $99.58/bbl: off September's $114 peak
30-Year Mortgage Rate ■ 7.30%: applications down 6% this week
EUR/CHF ▼ 0.9300: two-month low on French debt fears
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Moose Photos
Fed Minutes Confirm Hawks, But October Is Off the Table
The September meeting notes are out, and the headline is this: the Fed hiked unanimously, but the room was divided on what comes next. Chair Warsh called it "removing accommodation" rather than tightening outright, and 12 of 18 dot-plot participants still see one more hike this year. The market isn't buying October, but December is very much alive.
October hike odds collapsed to ~20% after September's 29,000 payroll print — down from roughly 70% before that report
Core PCE at 3.00% remains 100 basis points above target, which is the justification the hawks are leaning on for December
Variable-rate mortgage holders feel this first: each quarter-point adds roughly $15–$20 per month on a $250,000 balance
💬 We're watching whether December becomes a live meeting or a bluff. The payroll data says slow down; the inflation data says not yet.
💱 CURRENCIES
Photo: Ibrahim Boran
Euro Hits 17-Month Low as France's Budget Crisis Goes Sovereign
France can't pass a budget. That's not a political footnote — it's now moving currency markets and bond spreads in ways that echo 2011. The France-Germany yield spread blew past 150 basis points this week, and the euro fell to its lowest level against the dollar in 17 months. Safe-haven capital is flowing fast: into German Bunds, into Swiss francs, and out of Paris.
France's projected deficit: 6.50% of GDP without a deal, more than double the EU's 3% ceiling and enough to trigger excessive-deficit proceedings
EUR/CHF near 0.9300, a two-month low, as the franc surges on haven demand
French bank stocks are under pressure alongside sovereign bonds — the sovereign-to-banking contagion channel that markets remember from the last crisis
💬 A 6.50% deficit isn't a rounding error — it's roughly the size of France's entire annual defence budget, unfunded.
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Tibor Szabo
India's RBI Hikes for the First Time Since 2023, Shuts the Door on Cuts
India's central bank just reversed the last leg of 2025's rate-cut cycle in a single meeting. The RBI raised the repo rate 25bp to 5.50%, shifted its stance to "calibrated tightening," and Governor Malhotra was unusually direct: future moves can only be a hike or a pause. No cuts on the horizon.
CPI rose to 4.80% in August, up from 4.50% in July; the RBI now forecasts FY27 inflation at 5.20%
Brent crude averaged $114/barrel in September per the EIA — that energy-price shock is the single biggest upside risk to the RBI's path
200 million-plus borrowers face higher EMIs immediately: a ₹50 lakh, 20-year home loan typically rises ₹800–₹900 per month per 25bp hike
💬 India spent all of 2025 cutting rates to support growth — and now one bad oil month has forced the whole thing into reverse.
📰 Also Today
Brent Crude Slides Near $100 as EIA Cuts Demand Outlook: Brent fell to $99.58/barrel on October 7 from a September average of $114, but the EIA still forecasts Q4 at $105 — with 4.5 million b/d of Middle East supply assumed offline through year-end, a geopolitical premium isn't going anywhere soon.
Swiss Franc Surges to Two-Month High on French Debt Havoc: EUR/CHF dropped to 0.9300 as capital fled French assets; SNB foreign-currency reserves data due today will show whether the central bank intervened to cap franc strength, which Swiss exporters have lobbied hard against.
U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall 6% as 30-Year Rate Holds at 7.30%: The MBA reported a 6% weekly drop in applications for the week ending October 2 — at 7.30%, a $400,000 mortgage now costs approximately $820 more per month than it did in 2021, and the FOMC minutes released today give buyers no reason to expect relief before 2027.
🎧 Listen to today's episode — The Open Bell
The FOMC minutes are fresh and December is now the meeting to watch — share today's issue before the next data print reshapes the picture again.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.