The Fed just hiked for the first time in 3 years.
Kevin Warsh walked into his first FOMC decision and raised rates. No dissents. No hedging. Just a 12-0 vote and a dot plot that's already pointing at October.
Listen to the same-day episode — Ep. 064
The Fed just hiked for the first time in 3 years.
Kevin Warsh walked into his first FOMC decision and raised rates. No dissents. No hedging. Just a 12-0 vote and a dot plot that's already pointing at October.
Alex Monroe
September 18, 2026
⏱️ ~4 min read
📊 Today's Numbers
Fed Funds Rate ▲ 3.75–4.00%: first hike in over three years
10-Year Treasury Yield ▲ 5.02%: highest since before 2008
Brent Crude ▼ ~$102/bbl: Saudi reroute eases supply panic
BoJ Policy Rate ▲ 1.25%: highest since 1995
S&P 500 ▼ 7,552: markets price in more tightening ahead
US Dollar Index ▲ 100.33: up 0.72% on the rate move
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Tibor Szabo
The Fed Hiked. Now It's Flagging Another One.
Your mortgage rate just got more expensive, and 16 of 18 Fed policymakers think it's going higher again before the year's out. The FOMC voted unanimously to raise rates by 25 basis points, ending a pause that stretched back to July 2023, with Warsh pointing to a hotter-than-expected August CPI and Middle East energy pressure as the reasons.
Goldman Sachs and TD are already pencilling in October for the follow-up hike — the dot plot gave them cover
The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.02%, a level that raises the cost of everything from government borrowing to new home loans
The dollar climbed 0.72% to 100.33, tightening financial conditions for emerging markets carrying dollar-denominated debt
💬 We're watching whether October actually delivers: a second consecutive hike would be the most sustained tightening signal since 2022, and credit markets haven't fully priced it yet.
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Daniel Dan
Japan Just Hit Its Highest Rates Since 1995. Same Week as the Fed.
The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark rate to 1.25%, the most aggressive back-to-back tightening in its modern history, arriving just three months after the previous hike. Two board members dissented, but the message was clear: Tokyo is no longer the cheap-money anchor of global markets.
JGB 10-year yields hit 2.98% before the decision, a 30-year high that threatens pension funds and insurers with large bond portfolios
USD/JPY fell toward 153 earlier this week, squeezing carry trades and cutting the yen value of overseas earnings for Toyota, Sony, and Nintendo
The BoJ cited upside inflation risk even as data released hours before the decision showed annual price growth had slowed slightly, partly due to government energy subsidies
💬 Two central banks, two hikes, one week. The last time global tightening moved this synchronously was 2022 — and that was the year that wiped 20% off global equity indices.
🛢️ COMMODITIES
Photo: Mumtaz Niazi
Saudi Arabia Found a Workaround. Oil Fell Almost 3%.
Brent crude dropped 2.70% in a single session after Saudi Arabia announced it's restoring roughly half the capacity of its damaged East-West pipeline and has started shipping crude via sea transfers near Oman's Sohar port, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz entirely. The most acute supply-disruption fear eased. Markets noticed immediately.
ExxonMobil fell 3.50% and Occidental slumped 6.60% as traders unwound the geopolitical risk premium baked into energy stocks
US crude inventories drew down by just 0.60 million barrels to 423.40 million barrels for the week ended September 11, smaller than expected, suggesting domestic demand is already cooling
WTI dipped below $100/bbl, partially reversing a 20% month-to-date surge that had built on Strait of Hormuz disruption fears
💬 A pipeline bombed by drones, rerouted by tankers in three days. That's not resilience — that's a workaround that depends on Omani waters staying calm.
📰 Also Today
Brazil cuts Selic to 13.75%: Copom made its fifth consecutive quarter-point reduction on September 17, hours before the Fed moved the opposite direction — economists surveyed by Brazil's central bank now expect 13.75% to hold through year-end, making this likely the last cut of 2026, with 12-month CPI at 4.22% and real rates still near 9.60%.
AirAsia crashes 21% on collapse fears: Shares hit a four-year low of 50.5 sen on 133.84 million shares traded after Bloomberg reported the Malaysian government held contingency talks with rival carriers about absorbing AirAsia's domestic routes — the airline owes airport operator Malaysia Airports at least RM500 million, and Batik Air's CEO publicly confirmed readiness to step in.
Lennar Q3 miss signals housing distress: The largest US homebuilder reported EPS of $1.19 against a $1.29 consensus, with deliveries down 3% year-on-year and full-year guidance cut — the stock is already down 41.07% over the past twelve months, and today's Fed hike is set to push 30-year mortgage costs higher still.
🎧 Listen to today's episode — The Open Bell
Today's dot plot suggests another hike in six weeks. If you know someone sitting on a rate decision right now, they'll want to read this before Monday.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.