🛢️ Oil just hit $91. Your energy bill is next.
September arrived with a bang: US strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, a 30-year high in Japanese bond yields, and European inflation running hotter than anyone wanted — all in one trading session.
Listen to the same-day episode — Ep. 052
🛢️ Oil just hit $91. Your energy bill is next.
September arrived with a bang: US strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, a 30-year high in Japanese bond yields, and European inflation running hotter than anyone wanted — all in one trading session.
Alex Monroe
September 02, 2026
⏱️ ~4 min read
📊 Today's Numbers
WTI Crude ▲ $91/bbl: largest one-day gain in five weeks
Brent Crude ▲ $95/bbl: supply risk structurally elevated into 2027
Japan 10-Year JGB ▲ 3.00%: highest yield since September 1996
Eurozone CPI (Aug) ▲ 3.3% YoY: four-month high, ECB hike now near-certain
UK 10-Year Gilt ▲ 5.25%: highest since June 2008
US Diesel Crack Spread ▲ $100+/bbl: intraday record, freight costs rising
🛢️ COMMODITIES
Photo: Pixabay
US Strikes IRGC Sites as Crude Tops $90, WTI Surges 5.2% in a Day
US Central Command confirmed strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard air-defence, radar, naval and mine-laying sites on September 1, after Iran attempted to mine the Strait of Hormuz. The result was WTI's biggest single-day move in over a month — and the EIA doesn't see Middle Eastern supply recovering until early 2027.
WTI surged 5.20% on Tuesday, advancing toward $91/bbl; Brent settled near $95/bbl
The US diesel crack spread exceeded $100/bbl intraday, a record, signalling surging freight and logistics costs ahead
The EIA projects Middle East output won't return to pre-conflict levels until early 2027, keeping the supply squeeze structural rather than a one-day spike
Asian importers including China, Japan and South Korea have already turned to suppliers as far as Argentina to cover the shortfall
💬 The world's most important oil shipping lane is being mined, and the US just struck the people trying to mine it. Petrol prices are going higher — and so is the price of everything that gets shipped.
📉 BONDS
Photo: Liuuu _61
Japan's 10-Year Bond Yield Hits 3% for First Time Since 1996
Japan's benchmark yield briefly touched 3% on Tuesday, a level not seen in 30 years, as oil-driven inflation fears collided with record government budget requests and a pointed nudge from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the G20. A 3% yield that holds isn't just a milestone. It's a fiscal problem.
Japan 10-year JGB yield touched 3.00% on September 1, roughly double where it sat when Prime Minister Takaichi took office last October
Japan's debt-financing costs would exceed the 31 trillion yen ($195 billion) already budgeted if yields stay here, directly squeezing Takaichi's fiscal expansion
Bessent's G20 comment that the BOJ "will do things that lead to a stronger yen" has pushed up market-implied probability of a BOJ hike at its September 24 meeting
💬 If the BOJ does hike on September 24, Japan's government will be paying more to borrow just as oil is driving up everything else it spends on — the fiscal maths get uncomfortable fast.
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Filip Filipovic
Eurozone Inflation Jumps to 3.3% in August, ECB Rate Hike Now Near-Certain
Eurostat's August flash print landed Tuesday well above the ECB's target, with energy inflation running at 14.3% annually. The ECB meets on September 10, and a 25-basis-point hike to 2.50% is now close to a done deal — which means European borrowers are about to get squeezed from two directions at once.
Eurozone headline CPI hit 3.3% YoY in August, up from 2.9% in July, driven by energy costs rising 14.3% annually
UK 10-year Gilt yields rose 10bp to 5.25%, their highest since June 2008; 30-year Gilts touched 5.89%, a level not seen since March 1998
The ECB's own 2026 projections now forecast average headline inflation of 3.0% for the full year — meaning this isn't expected to ease quickly
💬 We're watching whether the ECB signals a pause after September 10, or whether a second consecutive quarter of oil-driven inflation forces its hand further into autumn — that's the difference between a one-off mortgage-rate adjustment and a prolonged squeeze.
📰 Also Today
RBNZ raises OCR to 2.75%, NZD drops: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked 25bp as expected on Wednesday, but the NZD fell sharply when the policy statement offered no fresh hawkish guidance — AUD/NZD surged to its highest since July 8, widened further by Australia's Q2 GDP beating consensus at 0.40% quarter-on-quarter.
Global bond rout deepens, 30-year US Treasury back near 5.30%: The US 10-year yield hit 4.78% on Tuesday, near a 20-month high, while Bloomberg's global government bond gauge reached 3.72%, the highest since 2008 — Fed funds futures now price the federal funds rate at 4.00% by year-end, implying at least one more hike from the current 3.50–3.75% range.
China's Caixin PMI hits 51.5, a five-year high: August manufacturing activity beat the 50.9 forecast by a clear margin, marking the longest unbroken expansion run in five years; Japan's PMI simultaneously hit 54.9, with new orders at their fastest pace since 2018, pointing to genuine industrial momentum across Asia rather than a China-only story.
🎧 Listen to today's episode — The Open Bell with Alex Monroe
The diesel crack spread hitting a record doesn't get much airtime — but it probably should. If you know someone who'd find that useful, today's issue is worth a read.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.