⏱️ ~4 min read

📊 Today's Numbers

• Brent Crude ▼ $90.95/bbl: largest single-day drop since conflict began

• WTI Crude ▼ $84.67/bbl: Iran pause eases Hormuz closure fears

• S&P 500 Futures ▲ 7,454 (+0.57%): oil relief lifts equities ahead of mega-cap earnings

• ECB Rate ■ 2.25%: held, but September hike still live

• Japan Core CPI ▲ 1.60% YoY: first uptick since March, BOJ meets Thursday

• Kospi ▼ 6,690.62 (−5.70% w/w): Asia-Pacific absorbing energy cost shock

🛢️ COMMODITIES

Oil's Worst Day in Months — But Read the Small Print

Brent crude fell more than 7% in early Asia trading after Iran signalled it would suspend retaliatory strikes while the US held its fire. Relief is real. It's also partial.

• Brent dropped 7.56% to $90.95/bbl, its sharpest single-session fall since the US-Iran conflict began in early 2026

• WTI fell 5.20% to $84.67/bbl as futures markets repriced the probability of a full Hormuz closure downward

• Brent is still 31.20% above year-ago levels, meaning any pass-through to petrol pump prices will be slow and modest

• Houthi forces claimed separate strikes on Saudi Red Sea facilities on the same day, keeping the alternative shipping corridor under threat

📉 BONDS

The ECB Paused. Lagarde Made Sure You Know It Might Not Last.

The ECB held rates at 2.25% on July 23, but President Lagarde used her press conference to make one thing clear: this isn't a pivot. With oil above $95/bbl at the time of the decision, renewed energy-shock inflation risk put a September hike firmly back on the table.

• Rate held at 2.25%, with a 25 basis-point hike at the September 10 meeting described as live, not ruled out

• Lagarde cited Brent above $95/bbl as reopening energy pass-through risks, potentially adding 0.3–0.5 percentage points to eurozone headline CPI through Q3

• Eurozone flash CPI for June is projected at 3.00% YoY when published July 31, per Continuum Economics, which would reinforce the hawkish case

🏦 MACROECONOMIC

Japan's Inflation Is Creeping Up, and It's Coming From the Gulf

Japan's core CPI rose to 1.60% year-on-year in June, the first increase since March. For a country that imports nearly all of its crude oil, the Strait of Hormuz disruption isn't an abstract geopolitical story. It's showing up in energy bills and grocery receipts. The Bank of Japan meets July 31 with a harder call to make than it had three months ago.

• Core CPI hit 1.60% YoY in June, in line with forecasts but up from May, driven by energy price pass-through

• Headline CPI rose to 1.70% from May's 1.50%, with the core-core measure also firmer

• South Korea's Kospi fell 5.70% to 6,690.62 in the week of July 21–24, with Samsung and SK Hynix each down more than 4.00% as the Korea Exchange activated program-trading halts

📰 Also Today

• S&P 500 futures up 0.57% to 7,454 this morning: Q2 2026 earnings are tracking 38% above year-ago levels per FactSet, but Alphabet's negative free cash flow last week dragged the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF down more than 5% — Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple all report mid-week, so that divergence gets tested fast.

• Houthi forces struck Saudi Red Sea facilities on July 26, with at least 7 vessels reversing course near the blockade zone: Kazakhstan's Caspian Pipeline Consortium separately suspended Black Sea crude loadings, disrupting roughly 80% of Kazakh exports — the global supply squeeze hasn't gone away just because the US and Iran paused.

• US June durable goods orders landed at 08:30 ET this morning: markets are currently pricing a 61.30% probability of a Fed hold at 3.50%–3.75% and a 38.80% chance of a hike to 3.75%–4.00% at the July 29–30 FOMC meeting, so the core capital goods read will move those odds before Wednesday.

🎧 Listen to today's episode — The Open Bell with Alex Monroe

Oil down 7% in a day is the kind of thing worth sending to a friend — forward this their way.

📬 Forwarded this? Subscribe free at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.