⏱️ ~4 min read

📊 Today's Numbers

• Brent Crude ▲ $100.69/bbl: first triple-digit close since late May

• WTI Crude ▲ $92.19/bbl: oil up 30%+ in July alone

• Nasdaq Composite ▼ 25,137.69: steepest single-day fall in a month

• S&P 500 ▼ 7,408.30: worst session since April 2025 tariff rout

• Tesla ▼ –14%: free cash flow swung to –$1.1bn deficit

• Alphabet ▼ –7%: $205bn capex guidance spooked investors

🛢️ COMMODITIES

Oil Crosses $100 as Houthis Strike Saudi Tankers in Red Sea

Houthi rebels fired missiles and drones at two Saudi tankers on July 23, setting one ablaze and forcing five others to reverse course. Brent crude closed at $100.69 a barrel, its first triple-digit close since late May, and Goldman Sachs is already eyeing $120 by Q4.

• Brent surged 6.45% to $100.69/bbl on July 23; WTI gained 6% to $92.19

• Oil is now up more than 30% in July as the Red Sea embargo compounds Strait of Hormuz risks

• Goldman Sachs targets $120+/bbl by Q4 2026 if disruptions persist; RBC warns worst-case scenarios approach 2022's $128 high

• A sustained Brent above $100 typically adds 15–25 cents per litre to petrol and diesel within weeks

📈 EQUITIES

Nasdaq Drops 2.15% as Alphabet and Tesla AI Spending Alarms Markets

Alphabet beat revenue forecasts with $119.8 billion in Q2, then told investors it plans to spend up to $205 billion on AI this year. Tesla reported negative free cash flow for the first time in over two years. Wall Street's response was swift and unambiguous.

• Alphabet down 7% despite a Q2 revenue beat; capex guidance raised $15bn to $195–$205bn for 2026

• Tesla fell 14% after free cash flow swung to a deficit of $1.1bn, reversing $1.44bn of positive FCF from Q1

• The Nasdaq closed down 2.15% at 25,137.69, its worst day in a month; the S&P 500 dropped 1.21% to 7,408.30

🏦 MACROECONOMIC

Trump Hints at Major Iran Offensive as US Completes 12th Night of Strikes

The US carried out its 12th consecutive night of military strikes on Iranian targets on July 23, hitting missile storage, drone production, and coastal surveillance sites. In a separately published interview, President Trump said he was "close to making a decision" on a large-scale attack, with forces "all set." Iran responded with threats against US-linked energy infrastructure across the region.

• 12 consecutive nights of US airstrikes on Iran, targeting missile and drone facilities

• Trump told Axios forces were "all set" for a large-scale Iran offensive, a signal that directly drove Brent above $100 on July 23

• Iran threatened retaliatory strikes on regional energy infrastructure, raising the tail-risk of a disruption that could push Brent toward RBC's $128 worst-case scenario

📰 Also Today

• Asia futures point lower after Wall Street's tech rout: Nikkei 225 Chicago futures stood at 66,325 by 23:00 UTC on July 23, fractionally above the prior close of 66,115, but South Korea's Kospi — which surged 4.40% to 7,096.89 on chip strength — faces reversal pressure when Friday's session opens, with Brent above $100 adding an extra inflation headwind for every energy-importing economy in the region.

• South Korea's Kospi surged 4.40% to 7,096.89 on Thursday: Samsung Electronics rose 3.65% and SK Hynix gained over 4%, both powered by Alphabet's 82% year-on-year cloud revenue growth validating AI chip demand — a thesis that Wall Street's same-day reversal has now complicated.

• The four largest AI hyperscalers are on track to spend a combined $650bn on infrastructure in 2026, a 67% jump from 2025; Alphabet alone is guiding to $205bn, its free cash flow turned negative in Q2, and it's pursuing $80–$85bn in equity raises this year, meaning index fund holders are picking up part of the bill through dilution.

🎧 Listen to today's episode — The Open Bell with Alex Monroe

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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.