📈 Congress flipped blue. Markets are repricing fast.
Washington handed markets a surprise overnight, and by the time Asia opened, the repricing was already well underway.
Listen to the same-day episode — Ep. 097
📈 Congress flipped blue. Markets are repricing fast.
Washington handed markets a surprise overnight, and by the time Asia opened, the repricing was already well underway.
📊 Today's Numbers
S&P 500 Futures ▼ 0.70%: blue sweep rewrites year-end positioning
10-Year Treasury Yield ▼ 4.906%: bonds rally on lower fiscal-expansion bets
MSCI Asia Pacific ▼ 1.00%: AI regulation fears hit the region hard
Brent Crude ■ ~$104/bbl: crude draw holds prices despite gasoline build
Selic Rate (Brazil) ■ 13.75%: held, inflation still above target ceiling
AMD After-Hours ▲ $520.40: data-centre revenue nearly doubled year-on-year
📈 EQUITIES
Photo: Gagan Kaur
Congress Flipped Blue Overnight. Here's What Markets Are Doing About It.
Democrats took both chambers in Tuesday's midterms. The result wasn't fully priced in, and by early Wednesday UTC, traders were scrambling to rework a framework built around a divided government.
S&P 500 futures fell as far as 1.40% before recovering to minus 0.70%; Nasdaq 100 futures off 0.80%
10-year Treasury yield dropped 6 basis points to 4.906%: lower fiscal expansion expected, so bonds rallied while stocks sold off
Dollar weakened against every G10 currency; MSCI Asia Pacific slipped 1.00%, Nikkei 225 hit a 3-month low on AI-regulation fears
💬 Bond investors are quietly cheering the result that equity bulls are cursing. Fewer tax cuts means less government borrowing, and that's a gift to the rates market, whatever it does to tech.
📈 EQUITIES
Photo: Rafael Minguet Delgado
Novo Nordisk Disappoints Again. The Ozempic Juggernaut Is Slowing Down.
Two consecutive earnings misses in a year is a pattern, not bad luck. Novo's Q3 results landed below an already-lowered bar, and a stock down 34% from its highs doesn't have much goodwill left to spend.
Q3 EPS consensus was $0.73 versus a year-ago comparable of $1.02, a roughly 28% year-over-year decline driven by rising R&D costs and pricing pressure
Shares already 34% below their 52-week high heading into today's print, following a Q2 miss that alone knocked the stock 5.97% in a single session
Eli Lilly's rivalry is tightening margins across the GLP-1 segment, and that competitive squeeze isn't easing anytime soon
Slower revenue growth gives Novo less incentive to cut US list prices for Ozempic and Wegovy. Patients without full insurance coverage are likely to feel that.
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Daniel Dan
Brazil Holds at 13.75%. Inflation Is Still Too Hot to Cut.
Copom kept the Selic rate unchanged Wednesday evening, as nearly every forecaster expected. The problem isn't the decision itself; it's that the conditions for a cut still aren't there, and December is a closer call than the committee might like.
Selic held at 13.75%: Brazil's 2026 inflation forecast of 5.2% remains above the 4.5% official target ceiling
Ibovespa fell 1.42% to 165,545 on Tuesday, hit by US election uncertainty before Copom even spoke
Prediction markets gave a December cut a 25% probability, up from 17.5% for today's meeting, with softening manufacturing PMI (consensus 43 vs prior 44.8) the main argument for easing
A weaker dollar and lower US yields after the Democratic sweep do help Brazil's external financing picture at the margin. Not enough to change Copom's calculus today, but it matters for December.
📰 Also Today
AMD Q3 revenue hits record $13.4bn: data-centre sales rose 97% year-over-year, non-GAAP EPS of $2.09 beat estimates by 7.46%, and shares added 7.54% after hours to $520.40 — eleven analysts revised estimates upward after the report.
EIA crude draw of 1.9m barrels keeps Brent near $104: gasoline stocks rose 3.9 million barrels (demand softening post-summer), but distillate inventories fell 1.5 million barrels to 102.8 million — tightening winter heating oil and diesel supply heading into November.
New Zealand unemployment holds at 5.6% in Q3: wages grew just 2.1%, near a four-year low, missing the RBNZ's own 5.5% forecast — the RBNZ now has less cover for a December rate hike, though ANZ and Westpac both see the door as still open.
🎧 Listen to today's episode — The Open Bell
The Democratic sweep is a story a lot of people woke up to this morning without context — if you know someone still piecing it together, today's issue does the work for them.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.