📈 85% chance of a rate hike in 72 hours
The Fed's 17 September meeting just got a lot less ambiguous — and the rest of today's news isn't exactly calming anyone down.
Listen to the same-day episode — Ep. 060
📈 85% chance of a rate hike in 72 hours
The Fed's 17 September meeting just got a lot less ambiguous — and the rest of today's news isn't exactly calming anyone down.
Alex Monroe
September 14, 2026
⏱️ ~4 min read
📊 Today's Numbers
Core US CPI ▲ 0.30% m/m: hotter than forecast, hike now near-certain
Fed Hike Probability ▲ 85%: CME FedWatch, for 17 Sep decision
SoftBank Group ▼ 13%: OpenAI IPO shelved, $40bn loan in question
Brent Crude ▲ $107.51/bbl: Saudi pipeline shut by Houthi drones
China New Yuan Loans ▼ 8-month low: credit demand weak despite rate cuts
Nasdaq 100 Futures ▼ >1%: AI valuations under pressure globally
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Rafael Minguet Delgado
The Fed's Hand Just Got Forced
Friday's core CPI print came in at 0.30% for August, above both the 0.20% consensus and July's reading, and it's effectively settled the debate about what happens Wednesday. The headline number was fine. The core wasn't.
Core PCE proxy sits near 3.30% year-on-year, well above the Fed's 2.00% target, leaving policymakers with limited cover to pause
CME FedWatch moved to 85% probability of a 25bp hike at the 17 Sep FOMC, with rates already at 3.50–3.75%, the highest since 2007
PPI energy ran at nearly 24% year-on-year in August, meaning the supply-side pressure feeding core goods inflation hasn't gone away
💬 Variable mortgage rates, car loans, and credit-card APRs are all set to reprice upward this week. The question now is whether one more hike breaks something.
📈 EQUITIES
Photo: Andrew Neel
OpenAI Won't IPO in 2026. SoftBank Is Paying for That Right Now.
Sam Altman confirmed Saturday that OpenAI is pulling its 2026 IPO entirely, citing safety priorities. That call landed hardest on SoftBank, which built a significant part of its recent strategy around the listing proceeding on schedule.
SoftBank fell as much as 13% in Tokyo on Monday, with its $40 billion unsecured 12-month loan used to fund the $30 billion OpenAI commitment now lacking the exit it was priced around
Z.AI dropped 7.50% in Hong Kong after launching a roughly $5 billion fundraise via share placement and convertible bonds priced at a discount, spreading dilution anxiety across Asian AI names
S&P 500 futures slid 0.60% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell over 1% in Asian hours, as global investors reassessed how much of the AI-sector premium was anchored to that single listing
💬 Think about what it takes to borrow $40 billion on a 12-month unsecured basis and then have the asset you borrowed against announce it won't be liquid for at least another year. That's the conversation happening in SoftBank's boardroom right now.
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Siyuan Zhao
China Is Cutting Rates and Nobody's Borrowing
The People's Bank of China released August credit data overnight. New yuan loans hit an 8-month low. Aggregate social financing missed forecasts. This is the pattern: Beijing eases, households and businesses stay cautious anyway.
Chinese CPI inflation was approximately 0.90% year-on-year in August against a 2.00% target, meaning deflation risk hasn't been beaten back despite multiple rounds of stimulus since late 2025
PPI ran around 3.20% year-on-year, driven largely by global energy pass-through — which makes the weak demand picture even harder to read for policymakers
Markets now expect further reserve-ratio cuts or targeted lending facilities before year-end, with confidence in the private sector still fragile amid ongoing property-sector stress
💬 We're watching whether weak Chinese credit growth starts dragging on commodity demand in a meaningful way — because iron ore and copper exporters in Australia, Brazil, and sub-Saharan Africa are already feeling the first signs of it.
📰 Also Today
Saudi pipeline shutdown pushes Brent to $107.51/bbl: Houthi drone strikes forced Saudi Arabia to close its East-West pipeline Monday, lifting Brent 2.70% and WTI above $103; average US diesel crossed $6.00 a gallon for the first time on Friday, and with the Strait of Hormuz also disrupted, central banks now face an inflationary supply shock that limits any room to cut rates.
Whyalla blast furnace permanently closed, 500+ jobs gone: Australia's only steelmaker of structural rail shut its blast furnace permanently on Monday despite a A$2.4 billion federal-state rescue since February 2025; the facility makes roughly 75% of all structural steel in the country, so the domestic supply gap lands directly on infrastructure budgets at the worst possible time.
Canada August CPI out today, gasoline already up 25.7% YoY: The July print showed headline Canadian inflation at 3.00% year-on-year driven almost entirely by a 25.70% gasoline surge; the Bank of Canada's preferred core measures came in at 2.20% excluding fuel, and the August print landed at 12:30 UTC this morning — the key read is whether that energy component is still widening.
🎧 Listen to today's episode — The Open Bell
The Fed decision is Wednesday. If you know someone trying to decide on a mortgage or a refinance this week, today's issue is worth having before rates move again.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.