Recession

There's no single official trigger everyone agrees on, but the common shorthand is two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP. In practice, economists also weigh employment, income, and spending data together before formally calling one. What it means in plain terms: businesses pull back, hiring slows or reverses, and household spending tightens, all at the same time, for long enough that it's clearly not just a bad month. It's the word every central banker is trying to avoid triggering when they raise interest rates to fight inflation.