The average forecast from Wall Street analysts, and the number every earnings report gets measured against.
Before a company reports earnings or the government releases economic data, analysts who cover it publish their own forecasts, and the average of those forecasts becomes the consensus estimate. It's rarely about whether a company actually did well or badly in an absolute sense, markets react to whether the number beat, met, or missed that consensus. A company can grow profits year-over-year and still see its stock fall, if the growth came in below what analysts had already priced in.
Part of the Open Bell Glossary — plain-English explanations of the terms that come up on the show. Browse every term.