⏱️ ~4 min read
📊 Today's Numbers
Brent Crude ▲ $89/bbl: six-month Hormuz crisis bites
US Headline CPI ▼ 3.4% YoY: second straight deceleration
US Gasoline ▲ $4.04/gal: up from $3.14 a year ago
India CPI ▼ 3.54% YoY: seven-year low, rate cut likely
Gold Spot ▲ $4,489/oz: soft CPI lifts safe-haven demand
Average Hourly Earnings ▼ 3.2% YoY: still trailing inflation
🛢️ COMMODITIES
Photo: Melika Hazrati
IEA Warns of 1.8Mb/d Oil Shortfall as Hormuz Deadlock Deepens
Six months in, the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz is now officially a supply crisis. The IEA's August report puts the Q3 global shortfall at 1.80 million barrels per day, and Brent has responded accordingly, jumping 12% in five sessions to sit at $89.
Brent crude near $89/bbl on August 12, up roughly 12% over five sessions, as ship transits through Hormuz have fallen from around 130 a day to fewer than 15
US crude inventories rose 17.4 million barrels last week, the largest weekly build since early 2023, but domestic stockpiles aren't solving a global premium priced on geopolitical risk
US gasoline averages $4.04/gal nationally, up from $3.14 a year ago — around $9 more per fill-up, and airfares are 25.5% higher over the same period
Washington and Tehran remain deadlocked, with Tehran demanding unfrozen assets and war reparations as conditions for reopening the strait
💬 One in five barrels of global oil used to move through the Strait of Hormuz. Right now fewer than 15 ships a day cross it instead of the usual 130.
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Atlantic Ambience
US July CPI Hits 3.4%, Matching Forecasts and Cooling Rate-Hike Fears
The Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered a clean print: headline CPI at 3.4% year-on-year, core at 2.5%, both exactly on consensus. That removes the September rate-hike threat — but it doesn't fix the purchasing-power problem hiding underneath it.
Headline CPI: 3.4% YoY (June: 3.5%), second consecutive deceleration, reducing the probability of a hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting
Core CPI: +2.5% YoY, +0.2% MoM, both in line with forecasts, with shelter costs accounting for roughly two-thirds of the monthly gain
Gasoline +24.6% YoY, fuel oil +39.1% YoY — energy remains the dominant budget squeeze even as the headline number drifts lower
Wages running at 3.2% YoY, below the 3.4% inflation rate, meaning real pay has fallen for a fourth consecutive month
💬 Inflation is still wiping out your pay rise — four months running.
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Daniel Dan
India July CPI Falls to 3.54%, Lowest Since Mid-2019, Opening Rate-Cut Door
India's July inflation print was a genuine surprise. At 3.54% year-on-year, it's the lowest reading since mid-2019 and, crucially, the first time headline CPI has fallen below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target since the Hormuz energy shock started. An October rate cut is now a live possibility.
India CPI: 3.54% YoY in July, down 84 basis points in a single month from 4.38% in June, driven largely by a sharp seasonal correction in vegetable prices
Core inflation also eased, though the vegetable-price retreat raises questions about whether this print fully holds through the monsoon season
Markets now price a meaningful probability of an RBI 25bp cut at the October MPC meeting, which would reduce monthly repayments across roughly Rs 30 trillion of floating-rate home loans
💬 For the world's most populous nation, a seven-year inflation low is a bigger economic moment than most Western headlines have acknowledged.
📰 Also Today
Tencent Q2 profit misses by ~4% as AI CapEx surges 190%: Revenue hit RMB 204.8bn (+11% YoY), but profit came in at RMB 56.0bn against a RMB 58.5bn consensus as operating CapEx hit RMB 51.8bn — the largest single quarter in Tencent's history — driving free cash flow to minus RMB 13.8bn and cutting net cash from RMB 146.9bn to RMB 58.2bn in three months.
Nebius surges 34% after AI cloud revenue more than doubles: The Amsterdam-listed GPU infrastructure group beat Q2 estimates by a wide margin, lifting sentiment across AI infrastructure names and contributing to the Nasdaq 100 hitting a one-month high by the US close on August 12.
Gold tests $4,489 weekly high on soft US CPI: Spot gold rose 1.09% as the in-line inflation print reduced real-yield pressure on bullion; UBS has formally recommended accumulating on any dip toward $4,000 per ounce, citing falling real US rates and a structurally softer dollar as the long-run tailwind.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.