⏱️ ~4 min read
📊 Today's Numbers
30-Year Mortgage Rate ▲ 6.55%: near-one-year high
TSMC (TSM) ▼ -4.00%: beat estimates, still sold off
SpaceX (SPCX) ▼ $133.93: below $135 IPO price
Nasdaq 100 ▼ -1.60%: steepest drop in two weeks
Brent Crude ▲ $85+/bbl: up $28 from start of year
S&P 500 ▼ 7,533.77: tech weakness spreading
📈 EQUITIES
Photo: Monstera Production
TSMC Beat Every Estimate. Its Stock Fell 4% Anyway.
TSMC posted $40.2 billion in Q2 revenue, 77% annual earnings growth, and Q3 guidance implying 12% sequential growth. Investors sold it anyway. The problem isn't the results. It's the $60–$64 billion capital spending budget attached to them.
TSMC Q2 revenue: $40.20bn, 77% annual earnings growth, top of its own guidance range
TSM shares fell 4%+ on July 16, dragging the Nasdaq 100 down 1.60%, its worst session in two weeks
$60–64bn capex budget for 2026 is the sticking point: investors aren't sure AI revenues justify it
Q3 guidance of $44.6–$45.8bn was viewed as solid but not solid enough to ease valuation anxiety
💬 The world's most important chipmaker beat every estimate and its stock still fell. That's not a TSMC problem. That's a valuation problem.
📈 EQUITIES
Photo: SpaceX
SpaceX Broke Below Its IPO Price. Musk Is No Longer a Trillionaire.
One month after the largest IPO in history, SpaceX shares dipped to $132 intraday on July 16, a 41% decline from their $225.64 June peak. The $75 billion listing that was supposed to define the AI era is now underwater, and a potential 911 million insider shares coming unlocked could push it further.
SPCX closed at $133.93, below the $135 IPO price, down 41.5% from peak
Q1 2026 net loss of $4.28bn alongside $7.7bn in AI capex raised questions about the $2.2 trillion debut valuation
Up to 911 million insider shares could become eligible for sale after the first earnings report, expected late July or early August
💬 Retail buyers who purchased SpaceX at or above $135 are now sitting on losses — with potential insider selling still ahead of them.
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Monstera Production
The Fed Hasn't Moved. Your Mortgage Rate Did Anyway.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 6.55% in Freddie Mac's July 16 survey, the highest in nearly a year. The Fed hasn't hiked since June. Bond markets don't care: they're pricing in at least one 25-basis-point hike by October, and that expectation alone is doing the work.
30-year fixed rate: 6.55%, 15-year fixed at 5.93%, both at multi-month highs
Core PCE sits at 3.30%, well above the Fed's 2.00% target, driven partly by Brent crude staying above $85
A $400,000 home now costs ~$2,610/month to finance, roughly $300 more than at the start of 2026
June retail sales grew just 0.20% month-over-month, below the 0.30% consensus, a sign that the squeeze is already landing
💬 6.55% isn't the ceiling if the bond market decides inflation is stickier than the Fed is admitting.
📰 Also Today
Netflix plunged 9.05% after hours to $67.62 after Q2 revenue of $12.56bn missed the $12.59bn consensus by a whisker — its second straight quarter of decelerating growth. Q3 guidance also came in light at $12.86bn, and it's still unclear whether the company's $3bn+ ad-revenue forecast for 2026 can offset the slowdown in core subscription growth.
Brent crude held above $85/bbl as US Central Command confirmed continued strikes on Iranian targets on July 16, sustaining a $28/bbl premium over the January price of $57. The ECB now forecasts eurozone inflation at 3.00% for 2026, revised up partly due to energy costs, alongside growth revised down to just 0.80%.
Asian chip stocks were pointed lower into the July 17 open after the Nasdaq 100's 1.60% drop and a further 0.30% slide in overnight futures. South Korea's KOSPI had already fallen nearly 6.00% earlier in the week on Samsung and SK Hynix volatility, making it one of the worst-performing major indices globally over the rolling five-day period.
🎧 Listen to today's episode — The Open Bell with Alex Monroe
If the mortgage rate story affects someone you know, forward this to them.
📬 Forwarded this? Subscribe free at theopenbell.co
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.