⏱️ ~4 min read
📊 Today's Numbers
Nonfarm Payrolls ▼ -23,000: first monthly loss since February
Fed Sep Hike Odds ▼ 44%: down from ~60% on Wednesday
Brent Crude (Q3 Forecast) ▲ $80/bbl: Citi raised from $75 on Hormuz risk
Gold ▲ $4,371/oz: seven-week high on dollar retreat
China CPI ▼ +0.5% YoY: six-month low, demand still weak
US Dollar Index ▼ Two-month low: payrolls miss hit the greenback
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Miles Burke
The US Lost 23,000 Jobs in July. Stocks Went Up.
July's payrolls came in at -23,000 — the first monthly drop since February and way below the +80,000 forecast. That's a weak number. But because it reduces the odds of another Fed rate hike, markets treated it as good news. Welcome to 2026.
Payrolls: -23,000 vs. +80,000 forecast, with prior months revised down a further 103,000 combined — the labour market was already softer than we thought
September rate-hike probability fell to 44%, down from roughly 60% the day before the report
Lower hike odds ease pressure on mortgage rates and credit card costs for households already stretched by two years of elevated prices
💬 The labour market is weakening fast enough to stop the Fed — but slowly enough that the broader economy hasn't fallen off a cliff. That's a very narrow path.
🛢️ COMMODITIES
Photo: Melika Hazrati
Iran Slams the Door on Hormuz Talks. A Tanker May Have Been Hit.
Iran's foreign minister ruled out any direct negotiations with Washington on Sunday, and the Revolutionary Guards repeated their position: Hormuz stays closed until sanctions are lifted and war compensation is paid. Then reports surfaced of an Iranian cruise-missile strike on a tanker off Oman. Unconfirmed, but enough to move markets.
Citi raised its Q3 Brent forecast to $80/bbl from $75, citing five months of unresolved conflict
Houthis simultaneously widened their blockade to Saudi Red Sea ports, opening a second chokepoint for global shipping
Roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil transits Hormuz — any prolonged closure feeds directly into petrol prices, heating bills, and shipping costs on almost everything
💬 Two simultaneous chokepoints, an unconfirmed tanker strike, and zero diplomatic movement. Oil traders don't need confirmation to price in the risk.
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Ellie Wang
China's Consumers Are Still Sitting on Their Hands
July CPI in China came in at +0.5% year on year, a six-month low. Consumer goods prices actually fell 0.8%. The economy is producing and exporting plenty — but ordinary Chinese households aren't spending, and that gap is getting wider.
China CPI: +0.5% YoY, down from +0.8% prior — consumer goods sub-index fell 0.8% YoY
PPI eased to +3.5% YoY from +4.1%, below the 3.8% consensus, suggesting earlier energy cost pass-through is fading
PBOC set USD/CNY at 6.7884, meaningfully above the Reuters model estimate of 6.7379 — a sign of managed depreciation pressure on the yuan
💬 Fiscal stimulus is coming, but analysts say it takes roughly a quarter to feed through. Consumer-facing businesses in China will feel the squeeze for a while yet.
📰 Also Today
Gold surges to $4,371/oz, a seven-week high: The metal gained +2.3% in a single session on Friday and +7% across the full week, with UBS holding a $5,000/oz long-term target — though a hot July CPI print on Wednesday could reverse some of those gains quickly.
Kosdaq circuit breaker triggered on AI rebound: South Korea's tech index halted trading to the upside on Monday as AI and semiconductor stocks surged, a sharp reversal from the Kospi's -10.84% single-session collapse on 28 July — Samsung and SK Hynix led the recovery.
BOJ July minutes show a split board: The Bank of Japan held rates at 1% in July but its summary of opinions, released Sunday, shows hawks pushing for faster hikes as inflation approaches the 2% target — and a faster BOJ tightening path remains the single biggest latent risk to global carry-trade positions.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.