📊 Today's Numbers
US Nonfarm Payrolls (June) ▼ +57,000: half of what was forecast
Payrolls ex-World Cup effects ▼ ~17,000: barely above zero growth
Fed Funds Rate ■ 3.50–3.75%: held, but hike still on the table
PCE Inflation (2026 revised) ▲ 3.60%: nearly double the Fed's target
LNG Supply Loss (2026–2030) ▼ ~120 bcm: years of elevated Asian gas prices ahead
ECB Deposit Rate ▲ 2.25%: highest since 2008, more hikes likely
🛢️ COMMODITIES
Photo: Gizem toprak
Middle East War Produces the Worst Energy Crisis in History. The IEA Made It Official.
The International Energy Agency doesn't reach for superlatives often. This week it did, calling the Hormuz conflict "the greatest threat to global energy security in history." Qatari LNG infrastructure is damaged. There are no alternative routes. And about 80% of the world's Hormuz-bound oil flows to Asia.
~120 bcm of LNG supply lost cumulatively 2026–2030, due to damage to Qatari liquefaction facilities — keeping Asian gas prices structurally elevated for years
Diesel and jet fuel more than doubled in price, feeding through to food costs, logistics, and airline tickets globally
~15% of global air traffic rerouted to longer paths around the Middle East, adding fuel burn and cost to every ticket
💬 The Strait of Hormuz is basically the world's most dangerous gas pipe. Right now it's half-blocked, which is why your petrol, your groceries, and your flights all cost more.
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Mike van Schoonderwalt
US Jobs Nearly Flatlined in June. Strip Out the World Cup and It Was Basically Zero.
The June payrolls number came in at 57,000. The forecast was roughly 110,000. But analysts at the Economic Policy Institute went further: remove the estimated 40,000 World Cup-related hires and underlying growth was approximately 17,000. Then the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised April and May lower by a combined 74,000. This isn't a one-month wobble.
+57,000 jobs added in June vs. ~110,000 expected. Underlying figure ex-World Cup: ~17,000
April and May revised down by 74,000 combined, signalling a broader slowdown that predates June
Labour force participation fell 0.3pp to 61.50%, and the prime-age employment-to-population ratio dropped 0.6pp — weak on both supply and demand simultaneously
Average hourly earnings +3.50% year-on-year, likely below real June inflation, meaning purchasing power is shrinking
💬 The US economy created fewer jobs in June than most mid-sized cities add in a good month. And that's before stripping out the World Cup.
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: AMORIE SAM
The Fed Held Again. But Kevin Warsh Just Changed the Rules.
The FOMC left rates at 3.50–3.75% for the fourth straight meeting. That part wasn't a surprise. What was: new Chair Kevin Warsh announced the Fed is abandoning traditional forward guidance entirely. No more dot plot as a reliable signal. Every decision is now purely data-dependent, stated in real time. After Thursday's payrolls miss, markets think the next move is a hold. But nine of eighteen officials still project at least one hike in 2026.
9 of 18 FOMC officials project at least one rate hike in H2 2026, with 6 expecting two. The next move is still more likely up than down
PCE inflation revised to 3.60% for 2026, up 90 basis points from the March projection, almost double the 2% target
Forward guidance dropped entirely. Bond market volatility is now structurally higher. Mortgage rate predictability is gone
💬 America's new Fed Chair just told the bond market "we won't tell you what we're going to do next." Refreshingly honest or quietly terrifying, depending on whether you hold a mortgage.
📰 Also Today
OpenAI proposes 5% stake worth ~$42.6bn to the Trump White House: Structured like a sovereign wealth fund, the deal would give the federal government direct AI equity alongside its existing 10% Intel stake — potentially reshaping how Silicon Valley raises capital and which AI products get approved first.
ECB raises rates 25bps to 2.25%, highest since 2008: The Middle East energy shock pushed eurozone inflation to a projected 3.0% for 2026; the ECB signalled more hikes likely, while analysts warn equity markets pricing 12% European EPS growth this year look dangerously optimistic.
Food prices up 140%+ in war-affected economies as Iran conflict reshapes global supply chains: Bread and cereals up 140%, oils and fats up 219% year-on-year to March 2026 in Iran. Brazil's beef exporters are rerouting through Suez at elevated cost. Canada cut its 2026 growth forecast. The IEA calls it the largest oil supply disruption in market history, with 600–700 million barrels of cumulative production already lost.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.