📊 Today's Numbers
Nasdaq 100 Futures ▲ 0.92% to 29,827: tech leads the reopening
WTI Crude ▼ $68.65/bbl: down ~20% in two weeks, pump relief ahead
VIX ▼ 15.81: calm conditions despite the structural rebalancing
SK Hynix ▼ 1.90%: chip rout rolls into Monday Asia session
Gold ▲ $4,172.30/oz: rate-hike bets cool, safe haven buying holds
Russell 2000 ▲ 21.97% H1: best first-half for small-caps since 1991
📈 EQUITIES
Photo: Markus Winkler
SpaceX Joins the Nasdaq-100 Today. Your Index Fund Goes Along for the Ride.
You didn't vote on this, but if you hold a Nasdaq-100 ETF, you're becoming a SpaceX shareholder by end of day. Index-tracking funds are required to buy roughly $4.3 billion in SPCX shares before the close to complete the company's official index inclusion. That mechanical buying is already lifting Nasdaq futures.
Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.92% to 29,827.25 in early Asia, driven by tech sentiment and the forced passive buying event
VIX at 15.81 (-2.11%), suggesting the market isn't braced for a disorderly gap-fill after three days dark
Russell 2000 surged 21.97% in H1 2026, its best first-half since 1991, giving bulls a strong baseline heading into Q3
~$4.30 billion in forced SPCX buying hits before today's close, concentrated in a single session
💬 If you own QQQ or a Nasdaq-100 ETF in your 401(k), you're about to automatically become a SpaceX shareholder today. No opt-out button exists.
🛢️ COMMODITIES
Photo: Michael Steinberg
Oil Is Down 20% in Two Weeks. Your Gas Bill Is Next.
The war premium that had been baked into crude since earlier this year is unwinding fast. WTI is sitting below $69 as indirect US-Iran negotiations progress and Saudi export terminals are back to full operations. Brent posted its worst monthly decline since March 2020 in June. The knock-on effect on inflation is already showing up in European data.
WTI at $68.65/bbl, down roughly 20% in two weeks as Strait of Hormuz shipping normalises
Brent's June decline was the largest since March 2020, with UBS and other major banks cutting their crude forecasts
Euro zone inflation fell to 2.80% in June from 3.20% in May, directly tied to easing energy costs and trimming ECB hike expectations to just 23bp priced for all of 2026
💬 Drivers spent months absorbing an energy shock built on geopolitical fear. That fear is fading. Pump prices should follow.
📈 EQUITIES
Photo: Naufal Shidqi
Korean Chip Stocks Lost $290 Billion in a Day. The Rout Isn't Done.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 6.70% on July 2 after semis had roughly doubled across Q2 2026. Seoul felt it hardest. SK Hynix crashed 14.60% and Samsung fell 9.10% in a single Thursday session, with the pair shedding around $290 billion in combined market cap. Monday morning in Asia brought no relief. SK Hynix fell another 1.90% at the open.
SK Hynix -14.60% and Samsung -9.10% on July 2, combined loss of ~$290bn in market cap in one session
Kospi closed at 7,648 on July 2 (-7.90%), its second large daily decline in a row, raising technical correction concerns across Asia-Pacific
Philadelphia SOX lost 6.70% on July 2, sparking a global profit-taking wave in Micron (-10%), Sandisk (-10%), and Intel (-9%)
💬 The question hanging over every chip investor right now: AI demand is real, but did prices run twice as fast as the fundamentals could justify?
📰 Also Today
Gold at $4,172/oz: Spot gold climbed 1.13% in early Asia trading after June US payrolls came in at just 57,000 jobs, roughly half the 110,000 forecast, pushing the probability of a September Fed hike down to 50.7% from 67% and reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
RBA holds at 4.35%: Australia's central bank began its two-day July 6-7 meeting with markets pricing no change to the 4.35% cash rate, as trimmed-mean core inflation rose to 3.60% in May, above the 2-3% target band; CBA economists see no rate cut before May 2027, leaving approximately 2 million variable-rate mortgage holders at peak rates for at least another year.
Bitcoin at $63,194: BTC rose 0.70% in Asia on Monday, tracking the risk-on mood as Fed hike bets softened, though it underperformed gold's 1.13% gain in the same session, suggesting institutional capital favoured traditional safe-haven assets over crypto amid the uncertain macro backdrop.
🎧 Listen to today's episode — The Open Bell with Alex Monroe
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.