📊 Today's Numbers
SpaceX (SPCX) ▲ Nasdaq-100 entry at ~1% weighting: $4.3bn in forced passive buying
WTI Crude ▼ $68.63/bbl: near pre-Iran-war lows, down ~20% in two weeks
S&P 500 ▲ 7,537.43 (+0.72%): healthcare, financials, industrials all at record highs
Foxconn Q2 Revenue ▲ $78.71bn (+39.8% YoY): AI server demand driving the beat
September Fed Hike Odds ▼ 45%: down from 48.3% a week ago
Gold ▼ ~$4,150/oz: pulled back from $4,200 intraday as dollar firmed
📈 EQUITIES
Photo: Markus Winkler
SpaceX enters Nasdaq-100, forcing $4.3bn in passive buying
Every fund tracking the Nasdaq-100, including the $800bn QQQ, was required to buy SpaceX shares this morning. No vote, no opt-in. That's how index mechanics work, and Nasdaq rewrote its own rules to make it happen faster.
SpaceX raised $85.7bn in its June 12 IPO — the largest in history — and enters the index at roughly 1% weighting under new fast-track rules that bypassed the usual seasoning period
J.P. Morgan estimated $4.3bn in mandatory passive inflows triggered on July 6-7; with only around 4% of shares publicly tradeable, even modest demand can move the price sharply
SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.9bn in 2025 on $18.7bn in revenue. Morningstar flagged overvaluation risk. Index investors now hold it regardless.
💬 If you own a QQQ-linked fund in your 401(k), you now have a stake in Elon Musk's rocket company. Morningstar thinks it's overvalued. You didn't get a vote.
🛢️ COMMODITIES
Photo: Michael Steinberg
OPEC+ adds 188,000 bpd from August, pushing WTI below $68.65
Oil has dropped nearly 20% in two weeks. That's not a blip. It's the third straight monthly OPEC+ output increase landing at the same time the Strait of Hormuz is quietly reopening, and the combination is dragging crude back toward levels last seen before the Iran conflict started.
OPEC+ raised output targets by 188,000 bpd from August, the third consecutive monthly hike; Brent fell to $71.86/bbl and WTI to $68.63/bbl as of early Monday ET
WTI is approaching its pre-war floor near $68/bbl, with roughly 160 vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz last week — a significant normalisation from earlier disruptions
September Fed rate-hike odds dropped to 45% from 48.3% a week prior, as falling energy prices take pressure off inflation and give the Fed reason to stay on hold
💬 Cheaper oil means cheaper petrol. It also means one of the core arguments for another Fed rate hike is getting harder to make.
📈 EQUITIES
Photo: Monstera Production
Foxconn Q2 revenue surges 39.8% on AI demand, flags geopolitical risk
When the company that assembles your iPhone posts a 40% revenue jump, it's worth asking what's actually driving it. The answer, almost entirely, is AI data centres. Consumer electronics helped, but the real story is server infrastructure demand holding firm while chip-stock valuations wobble.
Foxconn reported Q2 revenue of T$2.513 trillion ($78.71bn), up 39.8% year-on-year, beating consensus — credited to cloud computing and AI networking products
South Korea's June chip exports surged 199.5% YoY to $44.8bn, confirming this is a broad East Asian trend, not a single-company result
Foxconn flagged ongoing geopolitical risk, specifically US-China tensions and Iran-related supply chain exposure — revenue is strong, but the vulnerabilities are real
💬 A 40% revenue quarter built almost entirely on AI infrastructure, not smartphones, tells you something about where the actual money in tech is flowing right now.
📰 Also Today
US ISM Services PMI holds at 54.2 in June: Eased marginally from 54.5 in May but matched consensus — services, which represent over 67% of US GDP, kept expanding, reinforcing the Fed's case for a prolonged pause rather than further hikes.
Wall Street surged Monday on rate-hike relief: The S&P 500 closed at 7,537.43 (+0.72%), the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.12% to 26,121.16, and the Dow set a record close of 53,055.91, with healthcare, financials, and industrials all hitting fresh highs after June's 57,000 payrolls miss.
Gold retreats from $4,200 as dollar firms: The metal pulled back to around $4,150/oz on July 6 after the ISM PMI strengthened the dollar — gold remains roughly 26% below its February peak above $5,600, though Goldman Sachs maintained an upside bias, citing a record 45% of 76 central banks surveyed planning to raise gold reserves in the next 12 months.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.