⏱️ ~4 min read
📊 Today's Numbers
WTI Crude ▲ $80.21/bbl: up ~16% from recent low
Brent Crude ▲ $85.68/bbl: Hormuz risk premium climbing
Apple ▲ $327.50: all-time record close
10-yr Treasury Yield ▲ 4.60%: highest in nearly two months
Fed July Hike Odds ▼ 17%: down from 41% pre-CPI
Kospi ▼ 7.3%: largest single-session drop in over a year
🛢️ COMMODITIES
Photo: Michael Steinberg
US strikes Iran again. Oil is back above $80 and heading for your gas tank.
Fresh US military strikes on Iranian targets sent WTI above $80 a barrel overnight, unwinding much of the energy-price relief that drove June's soft inflation prints. The timing couldn't be more awkward for the Fed.
WTI at $80.21/bbl (+1.00%), Brent at $85.68/bbl (+1.10%) — crude is up roughly 16% from its recent low
The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of global seaborne oil — Iran's IRGC has threatened to close additional export corridors if strikes continue
Every $10 rise in crude adds roughly 25 cents per gallon at the pump — expect prices to reflect this within two to four weeks
The 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 4.60% as oil-driven inflation fears revived rate-hike expectations, compressing bond prices and nudging borrowing costs higher globally
💬 Crude was the single biggest reason June CPI came in cold. It's now doing the opposite.
📈 EQUITIES
Photo: Nenyasha Manzvera
Apple hits a record high after China finally switches on its AI features.
China's regulators approved Apple's generative AI suite for its market on July 15, unlocking hundreds of millions of iPhone users who'd been locked out of Apple Intelligence. The stock closed at an all-time high the same afternoon.
Apple closed at $327.50, up 4.00% — China accounts for roughly 17% of global iPhone revenue, and AI services now have a path into that market
Alibaba rose ~5.00% in premarket on news its Qwen model will power Apple Intelligence for Chinese users, marking Alibaba's first meaningful revenue-sharing role inside Apple's global ecosystem
Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft each gained around 3.00% as investors rotated from chipmakers into platform software, broadening the AI trade beyond semiconductors
💬 The chipmaker rotation and the platform surge happening on the same day tells you something: the market isn't souring on AI, it's getting more selective about who benefits.
📰 Also Today
US June PPI fell 0.30% month-on-month — the steepest drop since August 2025, against a consensus forecast of zero, with goods prices down 1.40%. Combined with Tuesday's CPI miss, the probability of a Fed hike at the July 29 meeting dropped to 17% from 41%, easing near-term pressure on mortgage and auto-loan rates. The catch: oil above $80 may already be making both data prints look stale.
South Korea's Kospi plunged as much as 7.30% intraday on July 16, its worst single session in over a year, as SK Hynix and Samsung led chip stocks sharply lower. Micron fell 8.00% in the US the same day. South Korea's financial regulator flagged imminent action on leveraged chipmaker ETFs, which amplified the move in both directions — still unclear whether the forced unwind of those products deepens the selloff further.
The US will impose a 25% tariff on roughly 4,100 Brazilian product categories, effective July 22, covering about $14.90 billion in annual Brazilian exports. A parallel forced-labour probe could add another 12.50% duty within days, potentially bringing total exposure to 37.50% for some exporters. Steel goods, processed foods, and textiles face the most immediate impact on the US import side.
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth consecutive meeting, while slashing its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.70% from 1.20% in April. The Canadian dollar slipped to 71.06 US cents on the announcement. The Bank projects inflation won't return to the 2.00% target until early 2027, meaning Canadian consumers face above-target prices for at least another six months.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.