⏱️ ~4 min read
📊 Today's Numbers
Brent Crude ▲ $83.30/bbl: biggest single-day gain since May 2020
WTI Crude ▲ $78.14/bbl: blockade premium fully priced in
Fed Funds Rate ■ 3.50–3.75%: Warsh testifies today, July hike 40% odds
Core CPI (June) ■ +2.90% YoY: no meaningful easing in underlying inflation
Intel ▼ -7%: rate fears punish high-multiple tech
Global H1 Deal Volume ▲ $2.8 trillion: highest since 2021
🛢️ COMMODITIES
Photo: Michael Steinberg
The Strait of Hormuz Just Became the Most Expensive Bottleneck on Earth
Trump's naval blockade on Iranian shipping, effective 4 p.m. ET today, sent Brent crude up nearly 10% in a single session. About 230 loaded tankers are sitting trapped in the Gulf, and the estimate from GasBuddy is $4-a-gallon gasoline at U.S. pumps within the next seven to ten days.
Brent closed at $83.30, up 9.6% — the largest one-day move in six years
Hormuz transits already fell 52% week-on-week before the blockade was even formalised, per Kpler and MarineTraffic
A proposed 20% toll on all cargo through the strait has been rejected by the IMO as legally baseless, but it adds another cost layer on top of the supply squeeze
U.S. pump prices could hit $4.00/gallon within days, hitting commuters, delivery drivers, and home heating oil users first
💬 One in five barrels of the world's seaborne oil used to pass through this strait — and right now almost none of them are moving.
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Alexsandro Rosa de Mello
Kevin Warsh Just Walked Into the Most Complicated Fed Testimony in Years
Warsh is sitting before the House Financial Services Committee this morning for his first-ever Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, and he drew about the worst possible hand for a debut. The June CPI print landed at 8:30 a.m., five major banks are reporting simultaneously, and oil just spiked 10%. Every word he says about inflation will move markets.
Markets pricing a 40% chance of a July rate hike and 61% for September, per CME FedWatch as of July 10
The federal funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75%, and Warsh's June FOMC already signalled openness to hiking if inflation stays elevated
Two-year Treasury yields hit their highest level since early 2025 overnight as investors positioned for a hawkish tone
💬 Warsh's tone this morning will shape whether you're looking at a rate hike by the end of July — which feeds directly into mortgage rates, car loans, and what your savings account earns.
📈 EQUITIES
Photo: Pixabay
Wall Street's Five Biggest Banks Report at Once, and the Numbers Are Striking
JPMorgan, Goldman, BofA, Wells Fargo, and Citi all dropped Q2 results before today's open. Investment banking had a genuinely strong quarter, powered by the SpaceX IPO and the kind of fixed-income volatility that traders love. The question now is what their guidance says about credit conditions ahead.
Investment banking revenue up roughly 26% year-on-year, trading revenue up about 14%, per KBW analyst Chris McGratty
Global H1 deal volume reached $2.8 trillion, the highest since 2021, per Dealogic
Citigroup expected to post ~40% EPS growth YoY — the highest rate among the five — while Goldman is projected to deliver the largest absolute revenue gain
Options markets priced implied single-day moves of 4.4% to 6.0% across the group going into today
💬 Five of Wall Street's biggest banks reporting on the same morning as the inflation print — every number today feeds into the same Fed decision on July 29.
📰 Also Today
US June CPI: headline ~3.90% YoY, core holds at 2.90%: Headline dipped from May's 4.20%, but the improvement is almost entirely a June gasoline effect that's already unwinding — analysts expect July to re-accelerate sharply given the Hormuz spike, so this reading may be the last "good" one for a while.
China June exports beat consensus estimates: Chinese crude import volumes also ticked up in June per Kpler, suggesting refiners were rebuilding inventory — still unclear whether that stockpiling was enough to buffer against the Hormuz collapse now cutting off a significant share of Gulf crude bound for Chinese ports.
Micron -5%, Intel -7% as semiconductor slide deepens: The VanEck SMH semiconductor ETF is down more than 5% over the past month and the Roundhill DRAM ETF more than 12%; JPMorgan's Fabio Bassi calls it crowded positioning, not an AI demand problem, and points to similar episodes in late 2025 and early 2026 that recovered.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.