📊 Today's Numbers
Brent Crude ▲ $78.02/bbl: ceasefire gone, prices climbing
Dow Jones ▼ 52,348.39 (−1.09%): Iran shock hits equities hard
Fed Funds Rate ■ 3.50–3.75%: held, but half the room wants a hike
Global CPI Forecast ▲ 4.70%: IMF raises inflation outlook for 2026
Global GDP Forecast ▼ 3.00%: worst growth outlook since 2025 revision
VIX ▲ 16.90 (+4.77%): fear ticking back up
🛢️ COMMODITIES
Photo: Michael Steinberg
Trump Announces End to Iran Ceasefire; Oil Prices Jump 5% Overnight.
U.S. Central Command struck more than 80 Iranian targets overnight, Trump declared the ceasefire "over" at the NATO summit in Ankara, and Brent crude surged 5.2% in a single session. Iran is now threatening to seal the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of world oil trade.
Brent crude settled at $78.02/bbl (+5.2%) on July 8, with WTI close behind at $73.52 (+4.4%). Analysts have $100 in their sights if Hormuz traffic drops significantly.
The U.S. Treasury revoked Iran's oil-sale waiver on July 7, removing an estimated 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day from legal markets.
Equity markets felt it immediately. The Stoxx 600 fell nearly 2%, with every sector closing lower except Oil and Gas, which gained 1.9%.
Expect pump prices to follow within 2 to 4 weeks, likely adding $0.10 to $0.20 per litre globally on top of an already stretched household budget.
💬 Every passive investor in a broad equity fund just watched energy stocks rip and everything else drop. The only winners yesterday were the ones who already owned oil.
📉 BONDS
Photo: david hou
The Fed's Own Minutes Say Half Its Members Want Another Rate Hike
The June FOMC minutes, released Wednesday afternoon, confirmed the Fed held at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fourth straight meeting. The catch: half of policymakers think at least one more hike is coming this year. Markets now price a 25 to 30% chance of a move at the July 28 to 29 meeting.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who replaced Jerome Powell in May, has publicly said "prices are too high." That's a different register than his predecessor, and markets are listening.
The June statement flagged Middle East energy shocks as a key inflation driver, which means yesterday's Hormuz escalation feeds directly into the next rate decision.
A 25 bp hike would add roughly $25 to $40 per month to a typical $300,000 variable-rate mortgage, on top of credit-card and auto-loan rates already at multi-decade highs.
💬 Variable-rate debt holders: the Fed just told you, in writing, that a hike is on the table. That's worth knowing before July 28.
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Mike van Schoonderwalt
The IMF Just Cut Global Growth. Then the Ceasefire Collapsed on the Same Day.
The IMF trimmed its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0%, down from 3.5% in 2025 and below its own April estimate of 3.1%. The fund cited the U.S.-Iran war and Hormuz disruption. Oil prices are forecast to rise nearly 32% this year. Global consumer prices are now expected to hit 4.7%, up from 4.1% in 2025.
The IMF's baseline assumed the Strait reopens later in July. That assumption looks shaky after yesterday.
Global CPI at 4.7% means disinflation has effectively stalled, forcing central banks to keep rates higher for longer across most major economies.
Real wage erosion is the practical result for workers in most countries: prices rising faster than pay, imported goods getting more expensive, job creation slowing.
💬 The IMF built its forecast on a ceasefire that no longer exists. The numbers are already out of date.
📰 Also Today
SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 under a new fast-track rule: 15 trading days after its record $75 billion IPO at $135/share, SPCX's inclusion triggered an estimated $4.3 billion in forced QQQ buying alone — meaning the 60+ million investors in QQQ or QQQM automatically gained SpaceX exposure, with no opt-out, in a stock trading above 90x revenue with a Q1 GAAP net loss of $4.28 billion.
Samsung posts a record 89.4 trillion won in Q2 operating profit, roughly 19 times higher year-on-year, powered by AI memory chip demand. Revenue of 171 trillion won slightly missed the 172.18 trillion won consensus, and South Korea's Kospi fell 4.91% on July 7 in a separate semiconductor rotation before recovering 1% in Thursday's Asia session.
Global equities sold off sharply on July 8: the Stoxx 600 fell nearly 2%, DAX and CAC 40 each lost more than 2%, and the Dow dropped 576.76 points to 52,348.39. The Nasdaq bucked the trend, gaining 0.20% as AI chip stocks held. For a $100,000 retirement portfolio with typical equity exposure, yesterday was a $1,000 to $2,000 single-day paper loss.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.