⏱️ ~4 min read
📊 Today's Numbers
WTI Crude ▼ $80/bbl: five days of gains gone overnight
Brent Crude ▼ ~$80/bbl: July's 24% surge now partially unwound
Tokyo Core-Core CPI ▲ 2.0% y/y: sitting exactly on BoJ's target
Eurozone Services CPI ▲ 3.3% y/y: stickiest part of inflation ticks higher
S&P 500 Futures ▲ 7,550: Amazon and Microsoft pulling the index higher
VIX ▼ 15.99: fear gauge at its lowest in weeks
🛢️ COMMODITIES
Photo: Michael Steinberg
Trump Claims Hormuz Deal; WTI Crude Tumbles Below $80
Oil had its best month in years. Then the weekend happened. WTI fell roughly 4.8% at Sunday's Globex open after President Trump announced a deal over the Strait of Hormuz and said denuclearisation talks with Iran would begin Monday afternoon. Iran promptly disputed his account, leaving traders caught between hope and scepticism.
WTI fell from ~$84.06 to below $80.00, a drop of roughly 4.8%, on the single headline
Brent had posted a 24% monthly gain in July before Sunday's reversal — its strongest since March
OPEC+ also announced a small additional production quota increase, adding supply-side pressure on top of the geopolitical shift
If the de-escalation holds and crude stays sub-$80, petrol and diesel prices could begin falling at the pump within weeks
💬 Oil just had its best month in years because of Middle East tension — then Trump tweeted a "deal" and wiped out roughly five days of gains in one night.
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Aleksandar Pasaric
Tokyo CPI Hits 2.0%; BoJ Rate Hike Bets Get Louder
Japan's inflation data landed above forecasts this morning, and for the Bank of Japan that's not a minor footnote. Tokyo headline CPI rose to 2.0% year-on-year in July, up from 1.7% in June. The BoJ's core-core measure, which strips out both fresh food and energy, hit exactly 2.0%. That's not close to target. That is the target. After decades of trying to get there, the BoJ now has every reason to keep tightening.
Headline CPI: 2.0% y/y in July, beating the 1.8% consensus; up from 1.7% in June
Core-core CPI at 2.0% exactly matches the BoJ's stated target, strengthening the case for another rate hike before year-end
A firming BoJ path will likely push the yen higher, raising borrowing costs for millions of Japanese households on variable-rate loans
💬 Higher BoJ rates mean cheaper imports for Japanese consumers — but a higher monthly payment for anyone carrying a floating-rate mortgage in Tokyo.
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Mike van Schoonderwalt
Eurozone CPI Rises to 2.9%, Services Refuse to Budge
Eurozone inflation came in at 2.9% in July, up from 2.8% in June and bang in line with forecasts. The headline number is manageable. The detail underneath it is less comfortable. Services CPI ticked up to 3.3% from 3.2%, and that's the component the ECB watches most carefully. Haircuts, restaurant meals, hotel stays. They're still getting more expensive, and that makes it harder to argue the tightening cycle is done.
Headline Eurozone CPI: 2.9% y/y in July, up from 2.8%, matching consensus
Services CPI: 3.3%, up from 3.2% — the ECB's most-watched sub-index moved in the wrong direction
ECB deposit rate sits at 2.25% after June's hike; futures now price roughly a 50/50 chance of another 25bp increase at the September 24 meeting
💬 Nearly a full percentage point above the ECB's target, and the stickiest part of inflation just got stickier — variable-rate mortgage holders in Spain, Italy and Portugal are watching September 24 very closely.
📰 Also Today
Amazon and Microsoft Lift Futures: S&P 500 futures are up 0.41% to 7,550 pre-market, with Nasdaq futures up 0.64% to 28,586.25, anchored by Amazon's 17.37% weekly gain and Microsoft's 19.43% post-earnings surge — though Friday's non-farm payrolls report is the real test of whether this holds.
India Sensex Surges 789 Points on Oil Drop: The BSE Sensex opened up 788.70 points at 78,883.34 on Monday, with the Nifty 50 adding 189 points; as a major oil importer, India's market responds faster than almost any other to a crude selloff of this size, and the RBI's next policy decision is now the key domestic watchpoint.
Peru Inflation Overshoots on Food and Transport: Peru's July CPI printed above consensus, driven by food and transport costs, and the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú — which had been cautiously cutting rates — now has limited room to ease further, with short-term bond yields likely to reflect that repricing.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.