⏱️ ~4 min read
📊 Today's Numbers
Brent Crude ▲ $94.07/bbl: six-week high, pump prices follow
WTI Crude ▲ $86.83/bbl: up 20%+ in July alone
ECB Deposit Rate ■ 2.25%: held, but September is live
Alphabet Revenue ▲ $119.8bn: beat, then the stock fell anyway
KOSPI ▲ +2.80%: Seoul wins the AI capex trade
Fed July Hike Odds ▲ 24.10%: oil is doing the Fed's thinking for it
🛢️ COMMODITIES
Photo: Michael Steinberg
Brent Crude Surges Past $95 as Iran Talks Collapse, Two Sea Routes Threatened
Secretary of State Rubio called Iran "not serious" after the 11th consecutive night of U.S. strikes, and the Houthis chose the same 24 hours to blockade Saudi Arabia's Red Sea bypass. Two chokepoints. Simultaneously. Oil noticed.
Brent closed at $94.07/bbl (+3.40%), touching $95 intraday. WTI settled at $86.83, up 2.90%.
Oil is up more than 20% month-to-date in July 2026. Goldman Sachs says $120/bbl is the base case if the Strait of Hormuz stays largely closed.
CME FedWatch now gives a 24.10% probability to a July Fed hike (from 16% on Monday), with September odds at 69%. Energy inflation is pulling central banks back into the room.
Retail petrol prices respond within days, not weeks. Flights, groceries, and variable-rate mortgages all follow in the same direction.
💬 Two of the world's most critical oil shipping lanes are under simultaneous threat for the first time since this conflict began. Goldman's $120 call isn't a tail risk. It's the base case.
📈 EQUITIES
Photo: Tara Winstead
Alphabet Q2 Revenue Hits $119.8bn, But $205bn Capex Plan Rattles Investors
Alphabet beat on revenue, beat on earnings, and the stock still fell. When a $119.8bn quarter isn't enough to hold the price, it tells you what investors are actually worried about.
Revenue of $119.8bn beat consensus by $2.87bn, growing 24% year-on-year. Google Cloud alone was up 82% YoY.
Full-year capex guidance raised to $195–205bn. Q2 capex hit $44.9bn, a 25.93% jump quarter-on-quarter. GOOGL fell 1.60% after hours.
Seoul won the session. Samsung and SK Hynix each gained more than 3%, lifting the KOSPI 2.80% on bets that AI spending at this scale flows through to regional chip suppliers.
💬 $44.9 billion in capex in a single quarter. More than most countries spend on defence annually. And the market's reaction was: not quite enough.
🏦 MACROECONOMIC
Photo: Atlantic Ambience
ECB Holds Rates at 2.25%, Signals Caution as Oil Inflation Risk Grows
The ECB did exactly what markets expected, 95% probability of a hold and a hold is what they got. But Christine Lagarde made sure everyone understood the September meeting is a different story.
Deposit facility rate held at 2.25%, following June's hike triggered by an inflation forecast upgrade to 2.60% for 2026.
Brent above $95 is a direct upside risk to the eurozone inflation path. Lagarde flagged it explicitly. The next decision is September 10.
Markets price a 69% chance of a Fed hike by September, creating a potential dual tightening cycle that historically pulls capital out of emerging markets and strengthens the dollar against the euro.
💬 The ECB held today. But with oil above $95 and Goldman warning of $120, September 10 is shaping up to be one of the most consequential ECB decisions in years.
📰 Also Today
Japan June exports surged 19.3% year-on-year, the fastest pace since November 2022, driven by semiconductor equipment shipments. The Bank of Japan's August 20 meeting is now firmly live for a rate hike, though Nordea analysts argue a 25bp move alone won't stabilise the yen without a broader signal on real interest rates for savers.
Tesla Q2 revenue beat at $28.24bn (+26% YoY), but free cash flow collapsed roughly 75% quarter-on-quarter, sending shares down 2.82% after hours to $363.45. Both Tesla and Alphabet fell in the same after-hours session despite both topping revenue forecasts, which says something about where investor patience currently sits on high-capex growth stories.
India's Nifty 50 and Sensex fell for a third straight session on July 22, with Motilal Oswal's Siddhartha Khemka citing a "marginal negative bias" from FII outflows, rupee weakness, and Brent near $95. India imports around 85% of its crude oil needs, so every dollar on the barrel lands directly on the current account deficit.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.