⏱️ ~4 min read
📊 Today's Numbers
WTI Crude ▲ $82.13/bbl: +5% on Iran deal collapse
Brent Crude ▲ $85.53/bbl: Hormuz risk fully repriced
Berkshire Hathaway ▲ +2.3%: Abel's biggest spending quarter yet
Spot Gold ■ $4,342.86/oz: near two-month high on jobs shock
Nasdaq Composite ▼ 26,605.36: Intel offering drags tech
Sept Fed Rate-Hike Odds ■ ~52%: oil inflation keeps hike alive
🛢️ COMMODITIES
Photo: Melika Hazrati
Iran Slams the Door. Oil Surges 5% to $82.
The week started with a geopolitical gut punch. Iran's foreign minister ruled out direct talks with Washington on Monday, Tehran reinstated demands tied to the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump separately demanded Iran pay compensation. Any deal that looked possible last week now looks distant.
WTI crude settled at $82.13/bbl, up 5% on the day. Brent climbed 2.4% to $85.53. Exxon Mobil rose 3.11%, Chevron 2.87%.
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global daily oil supply. Prolonged disruption doesn't stay in the Gulf. It shows up in fuel, food, and freight costs everywhere.
September Fed rate-hike probability sits at ~52% via CME FedWatch. Sustained oil-driven inflation gives the Fed reason to push borrowing costs higher, just when many were hoping for relief.
Iran's supreme leader replaced the official who'd been issuing negotiating demands with a veteran Revolutionary Guards commander known for scepticism about talks. That's not a negotiating tactic. That's a signal.
💬 Every sustained $10 rise in crude typically adds around 25 cents per gallon at the pump. Your next tank fill is already doing the math.
📈 EQUITIES
Photo: Rafael Minguet Delgado
Berkshire's New Boss Is Spending the Hoard.
Greg Abel's first full year running Berkshire Hathaway is starting to look very different from the Buffett era. Q2 operating earnings rose 16% year-on-year, led by energy and railroads. But the bigger story is what Abel did with the cash.
Buybacks hit $4.5bn in Q2, up from just $235mn in Q1. The firm also became a net buyer of equities for the first time in 15 quarters, purchasing roughly $20bn more stocks than it sold.
The famous cash pile fell to $365.5bn from $397.4bn. A $31.9bn drawdown in a single quarter is a statement.
Abel personally paid $15.3mn for Berkshire shares in recent transactions. Skin in the game, literally.
💬 Berkshire spending at this pace is Wall Street's version of a confidence vote on the US economy. Abel's not waiting for the perfect moment. He's decided this is it.
📰 Also Today
JPMorgan raises S&P 500 year-end target to 8,000: Up from 7,800, implying ~3% upside from Friday's record close of 7,762, with 2026 EPS estimates lifted to $365 and 2027 to $420 — JPMorgan attributes the move to AI monetisation accelerating faster than AI spending.
Intel tumbles 4.35% to $97.23 after announcing a $15bn share offering: The largest semiconductor equity raise in recent years dragged Nvidia down 2.90% and Apple 1.50%, with the Nasdaq closing off 0.32% at 26,605.36; competing in the AI arms race is proving extraordinarily capital-intensive.
Gold holds near $4,342.86/oz after July payrolls contracted 23,000: September Fed rate-hike odds dropped to 44% from roughly two-thirds the prior week, lifting gold's appeal; silver rose to $63.80/oz and Asian central banks continued buying programmes.
RBA held its cash rate at 3.85% on Tuesday, as expected: With US payroll revisions removing an additional 103,000 jobs from prior months, rate differentials across Asia-Pacific are shifting fast ahead of Wednesday's US CPI print — MUFG opened long AUD/JPY at 111.20 targeting 114.50, betting yen weakness has further to run.
🎧 Listen to today's episode — The Open Bell with Alex Monroe
Oil at $82, Berkshire spending $32bn in a quarter — send this to someone who'll find that number genuinely alarming.
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Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.